Cisse's debut offers plenty of hope for Newcastle

Soccer Betting Lines

02/06/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Papiss Cisse's Newcastle debut may have come a bit earlier than expected, but he sure gave fans on Tyneside something to get excited about.

The Senegal international was the most expensive signing in a subdued January transfer window when he moved from German side Freiburg to Newcastle for nearly $16 million.

But the African Cup of Nations not only took Newcastle's leading scorer, Demba Ba, away from the club in January but would also delay the debut of Cisse.

Newcastle was expected to struggle without Ba, who leads the club with 16 goals this season, but Senegal's early exit from the competition has been a big boost to the fortunes of the Magpies.

Senegal was considered to be one of the top teams in the tournament, but stunning defeats to Zambia, Equatorial Guinea and Libya saw the team crash out in embarrassing fashion.

This paved the way for the early returns of Ba and Cisse, who both made major contributions in the club's 2-1 win over Aston Villa on Sunday.

Cisse had just arrived earlier in the week and found himself on the bench for Sunday's match, with the chance that he might feature as a substitute in the second half.

However, a knee injury to striker Leon Best just 14 minutes into the contest paved the way for Cisse, who got a warm reception from the fans at Sports Direct Arena upon his arrival.

And the 26-year-old didn't disappoint, generating a few decent scoring chances before capping his debut with a moment of brilliance.

With the game tied at 1-1, Jonas Gutierrez crossed the ball from the left wing to Cisse at the edge of the penalty area. He took the ball down off his chest and in one smooth motion, found the upper corner of the net with a left-footed strike that was pure genius.

It was a goal that was worthy of a match-winner, and gave Newcastle fans a glimpse of what could be a very promising future.

Early this season Newcastle found itself in the top five in the EPL table because of a stingy defense that yielded only four goals in its first seven games.

But injuries to the back line, including a season-ending one to Steven Taylor, has since seen the opposition find the back of the net more frequently, bringing about concerns that Newcastle simply doesn't have enough firepower to keep up.

Ba has enjoyed a stellar campaign for Alan Pardew's men with 16 goals, but after the former West Ham man, Best is next on the list with four goals to his name.

The arrival of Cisse provides a potent strike partner for Ba, who should benefit from playing alongside another proven scorer.

Cisse notched nine goals in 17 Bundesliga games for Freiburg prior to his arrival on Tyneside this season, which follows a campaign in which he finished second to Bayern Munich's Mario Gomez on the German scoring chart with 22 goals in 32 games.

The 26-year-old has yet to prove that his prolific scoring prowess will transfer to the Premier League, but Sunday's highlight-reel goal is a good start.

Ba and Cisse together give Newcastle the potential for one of the top strike partnerships in the Premier League, and have fans dreaming of a place in Europe for next season.

Following Sunday's 2-1 win, Newcastle sits in fifth place and just one point back of fourth-place Chelsea.

There is still plenty of work to be done to secure a European berth, but the arrival of a player like Cisse could be the kind of difference-making move necessary to put Newcastle over the top.

Onlinecadino Soccer Betting News

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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