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01/30/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Using a 'huge' sample size of three combined events, what can we make of the starts by Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson?
Woods teed it up on the European Tour this week instead of playing the Farmers Insurance Open, an event he has won six times. Meanwhile, Mickelson did play the Farmers, but was only around for two rounds.
Woods entered the final round tied for the lead with England's Robert Rock but managed just an even-par 72 to share third place behind Rock.
The former world No. 1 gears his season's around the four majors, so you can't be overly alarmed that he lost to some guy most golf fans hardly even know.
At the Abu Dhabi Championship, Woods hit 50-percent of fairways, just over 72- percent of greens in regulation and averaged 29.25 putts per round.
In his final round however, Woods hit just two fairways and six greens in regulation. The precision Woods needs to win just wasn't there on the final day, yet he remained upbeat despite the loss.
"I felt just a touch off," Woods said afterwards. "Since Australia, my stroke- play events, I've been doing pretty good. I just need to keep getting more consistent. Today, I putted beautifully, but didn't give myself enough looks."
Woods was right there in his second straight official event (Australian Open and Abu Dhabi Championship), but ended in third place both times. Some say he's back, I'll agree to that when he wins again, and knowing Tiger, he likely wouldn't agree with that assessment until he wins a major.
And then there was Phil the thrill.
Mickelson has shot in the 60s in four of his six rounds, but didn't contend in either of the two events he has played.
In the main statistical categories, Mickelson ranks in the top-50 in just one - birdie average. He is 69th in driving accuracy and 79th in greens in regulation.
What strikes me about his share of 49th at the Humana Challenge and his missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open was his poor opening rounds
At the Humana, which is one of the biggest birdie-fests on tour, Mickelson stumbled to a two-over 74. Then on the more difficult South Course at Torrey Pines, Mickelson had seven bogeys en route to a five-over 77.
Some commentators on the Golf Channel stated that Phil is playing his way into shape. I'll respectfully disagree.
In the 13 of the 18 years he has won on tour, Mickelson won an early-season event in either California or Arizona. Of his 39 careers victories, 16 have come in early season West Coast tournaments.
Since he joined the tour in 1992, Mickelson never went more than two straight years without a West Coast win at the start of the season until 2009. That year he won the Northern Trust Open, but he hasn't won out west since.
He has four titles since that win at the Northern Trust, and the only one that came after April was the 2009 Tour Championship.
Mickelson could be battling to find the right medication for his arthritis, but more likely he's just off to a slow start.
The eye-ball test between Mickelson and Woods shows that Woods is closer to winning, but that could change in an instant.
Mickelson will play one of his favorite events this week in Phoenix. If he plays poorly there, then there will be cause for concern. If he contends, the first two events were just a mirage.
One thing is certain, the sooner these two get back to winning, the sooner fans will realize the golf season is underway. Let's hope that realization comes before the tour heads to Augusta National the first week of April.
THE COMEBACK KID
Brandt Snedeker is both lucky and good. He earned his third PGA Tour title on Sunday and pushed his PGA Tour playoff record to 2-0.
Snedeker hasn't just won three times, he has rallied for all three of those wins. He has erased deficits of four, six and eight strokes.
The math may show he was seven behind Kyle Stanley to start Sunday's final round, but Snedeker was eight back after he birdied the third, while Stanley birdies Nos. 1 and 2.
In his three wins, Snedeker has closed with rounds of 63, 64 and 65. He needed some help on Sunday as Stanley faltered to a triple-bogey on the final hole of regulation to force the playoff.
Once Stanley opened the door, Snedeker gladly stepped through and picked up the victory.
Some might argue that Snedeker didn't knock off any big names in his three wins, but that wouldn't be correct. His playoff win last year at The Heritage was over then world No. 1 Luke Donald. The Englishman lost that title briefly after falling in this playoff, but he has had a stranglehold on the top spot for 35 straight weeks now.
Snedeker had seven top-10s last year and is off to a fast start this year with top-eight finishes in his two starts despite coming off hip surgery in the offseason.
What will this quick start lead to? A major title, a spot on the USA Ryder Cup team? Only time and his health will tell.
MINI-TIDBITS
- Woods hasn't strung together four sub-pars rounds since the 2010 Masters, a span of 25 stroke-play tournaments.
- Lydia Ko became the youngest winner of a professional golf event on Sunday when she won a women's event in Australia. The 14-year-old Ko beat Becky Morgan by four strokes. Ryo Ishikawa, then 15, and Amy Yang, then 16, held the previous records for youngest winners in male and female events.
<< Ljubicic wins Zagreb opener
Zagreb, Croatia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Croatian tennis hero Ivan Ljubicic
was a hard-fought opening-round winner Monday at the Zagreb Indoors tennis
event.
The top-seeded Ljubicic slammed 16 aces and held off Slovak Karol Beck 7
<< Pat Burrell retiring after 12 seasons
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pat Burrell is retiring after a 12-year major league
career, according to multiple reports.
Burrell spent the majority of his career with the Philadelphia Phillies, who
selected him with the No. 1 overall pick
<< Stampeders re-sign LB Calixte
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Calgary Stampeders re-signed their
longest-serving player, nine-year non-import veteran linebacker Marc Calixte,
on Monday.
Per club policy, terms of the agreement were not released,
"I'm prou
<< Bengals WR Simpson pleads not guilty to drug charge
Covington, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Jerome
Simpson pled not guilty Monday in a Kentucky court to a felony drug charge
stemming from an arrest in September.
Simpson was indicted January 19 on one co
Rangers give Washington 2-year extension >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ron Washington, the only manager in franchise
history to win a postseason series, has signed a two-year contract extension
with the Texas Rangers.
The deal, announced Monday, runs through the 2014 season. F
Charleston Southern sets 2012 schedule >>
Charleston, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Charleston Southern football will kick off
its 2012 season at crosstown rival The Citadel and make a trip to the
University of Illinois as part of an 11-game schedule announced on Monday.
The Buccaneers, fro
Godin helps Atletico hold off Osasuna >>
Navarra, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Atletico Madrid climbed to seventh in La
Liga on Monday after Diego Godin's first-half goal handed Atletico a 1-0 win
at Osasuna.
The goal arrived five minutes before halftime when a corner ki
Porto stunned at Gil Vicente >>
Lisbon, Portugal (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FC Porto fell five points back of league-
leaders Benfica on Sunday after sustaining a surprising 3-1 defeat at Gil
Vicente.
The home side brought a five-match winless streak into the contest against
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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Many fans thought it was the best side in the nation by the end of last season. This year, the polls have built on Georgia's momentum and granted it the No. 1 preseason ranking, followed by Ohio State and USC. (The Associated Press has the Buckeyes at No. 2; USA Today took the Trojans.)
"To have people believing we have one of the best teams in the nation going into this thing, it's exciting for us," Bulldogs coach Mark Richt told the AP. "I don't think anything is guaranteed, but we certainly have put ourselves in position where at least the college football world thinks we're pretty good."
Georgia Bulldogs - 9.5 wins
There's no question they're good, but the Bulldogs have one of the toughest 12-game schedules in the nation, mostly because they play in the powerhouse Southeastern Conference. Away games at No. 15 Arizona State, No. 7 LSU and No. 10 Auburn loom large, with contests between the hedges versus No. 24 Alabama and No. 18 Tennessee as well as the World's Largest Cocktail Party in Jacksonville versus No.5 Florida.
Ohio State Buckeyes - 10 wins
Like the Bulldogs, the Buckeyes also have a number of tough road contests in 2008. After two scrimmages dressed up as real games versus Youngstown State and Ohio, it's off to face USC. Other tough away games include No.13 Wisconsin in October and No. 20 Illinois in November. Granted, it should be pretty easy sledding at the Horseshoe. In fact, the only ranked team that travels to Columbus is No. 22 Penn State, in October.
USC Trojans - 10.5 wins
A similarly light schedule awaits the Trojans of Southern California, which is why the oddsmakers' total is one win more and the over is currently commanding -150 odds. Pete Carroll's troops only play three ranked teams in 2008, and all of those games are at home. After what should be an easy trip to Virginia to start things off on Aug. 30, the Trojans get two weeks to prepare for Ohio State in Los Angeles. Their two other ranked opponents, No. 21 Oregon and No. 15 Arizona State, visit in consecutive weeks to start the month of October. After that, the competition eases up. Of course, this is the same highly-touted school that lost to Stanford in 2007 and Oregon State in 2006. And don't discount the fact that USC plays its biggest rivals, Notre Dame and UCLA, back-to-back to close out the regular season. On paper, the Trojans are far superior, but motivation will be high for the Irish and Bruins, especially if their historic foes are in national-title contention.
Odds to Win the Heisman Trophy
Tim Tebow, Florida - 7/2
He won it last year, so it's no surprise he's the favorite to do it again, making him just the second player to go back-to-back. Ohio State's Archie Griffin turned the trick in 1974 and 1975, and Tebow's coach, Urban Meyer, is pretty sure his star quarterback can match the Buckeyes legend.
"There has never been anyone quite like him," Meyer told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "I am very lucky to be his coach."
Chris Wells, Ohio State - 5/1
The man they call "Beanie" was a star recruit out of high school, so it's not like nobody knew who the star tailback was before he rushed for 576 yards as a freshman in 2006 and 1,609 as a sophomore. But perhaps his finest moment came last year versus Michigan when he rumbled for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the Buckeyes' 14-3 victory over the hated Wolverines.
Knowshon Moreno, Georgia - 8/1
If the Bulldogs are to live up to expectations, they'll need a huge effort from their sophomore running back. This might be the last year of college ball for Moreno, who rushed for 1,334 yards and for 14 touchdowns as a freshman, while adding 253 receiving yards on 20 receptions, so expect big things for the man from Belford, N.J.
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