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09/03/2010 -
EUGENE, Ore. (AP) -Darron Thomas seems to have it easy, making his debut as Oregon's starting quarterback at home and with the No. 11 Ducks heavily favored.
But it's quite the contrary.
When Thomas takes the field on Saturday against New Mexico, all eyes will be on whether the sophomore can lift Oregon out of the Jeremiah Masoli debacle and whether coach Chip Kelly did right in choosing him to start over senior Nate Costa.
Thomas' response? Bring it on.
``It's a good thing, because now you're in the spotlight,'' he said. ``I'm happy for it. It's good not to be in the back. I'm prepared for it and ready to go.''
Thomas played in five games as a true freshman in 2008, completing 16 of 33 passes for 268 yards and three touchdowns. Called upon when Oregon was hit by a slew of injuries, Thomas came close to leading the Ducks on a come-from-behind victory against Boise State that season.
Thomas then redshirted the 2009 season.
Masoli led Oregon to a 10-3 record, the Pac-10 championship and a Rose Bowl berth last season. He was a possible Heisman Trophy candidate before his dramatic fall from grace.
Masoli was accused in the theft of a pair of laptops and a guitar from a campus fraternity house in January. He was suspended for this season after pleading guilty to a burglary charge, but was later stopped by police for a traffic violation and marijuana was found in the car.
As a result, Kelly kicked him off the team.
Masoli appealed to the NCAA to play as a walk-on this season at Mississippi, but he was turned down. The loss left Oregon without a clear starter. Thomas competed for the job against Costa throughout fall camp, before edging him in a scrimmage last week. While Costa is more of a traditional passer, Thomas is more of a threat on the ground, more in the mold of Dennis Dixon.
Adding to the pressure on Saturday will be the absence of running back LaMichael James, who is serving a one-game suspension after pleading guilty to a misdemeanor harassment charge stemming from an altercation with an ex-girlfriend.
Last season James rushed for a team-high 1,546 yards, setting a new record for freshmen in the Pac-10. He averaged 6.7 yards and added 14 TDs to earn the league's freshman of the year.
Fellow sophomore Kenjon Barner will start in James' place on Saturday. Also a return specialist, Barner had 1,553 all-purpose yards last season.
By all accounts, Barner had a productive fall camp. Oregon coach Chip Kelly says he is ``just scratching the surface of what he can be.''
But even with the few uncertainties - new QB, no star running back - Oregon remains a force, selected to repeat as Pac-10 champions this season.
``It's back in business and we're ready to go for New Mexico,'' Thomas said. ``I'm ready for it to be an exciting day on Saturday.''
In contrast, the Lobos aren't feeling a whole lot of pressure. New Mexico went 1-11 last season as the team dealt with its own off-field troubles, including then-first year coach Mike Locksley's altercation with a former assistant.
Now, like Oregon, the Lobos are eager to move forward.
``When you play a team like Oregon and they're ranked No. 11 in the country, there's really no pressure on us,'' Locksley said. ``I think it's going to be to our benefit to go up there, play loose, have fun, take some opportunities and take advantage of some opportunities against a real good team.''
New Mexico, which has a spread offense similar to Oregon's, will start sophomore B.R. Holbrook at quarterback. He leads a group dominated by fellow sophomores, who lack experience but will likely gain it considerably on Saturday. The Lobos have a 4-3 defense led by Carmen Messina, who led the nation with 162 tackles last season.
New Mexico is 7-43 against ranked opponents. But the last time they played a Pac-10 opponent, they beat Arizona 36-28 in 2008.
``As I told our team, we realize the challenge the reigning Pac-10 champions present us, but we also know that we have to make them beat us,'' Locksley said. ``We need to do the things that we've talked about since January to ensure that we make a Pac-10 champion team like Oregon beat us and not help them.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
<< WVU's Devine ready for senior year
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. (AP) -Noel Devine stayed in school just for this.Rather than take a chance on the NFL draft last April, Devine is returning for one final season in which he believes ``the sky is the limit.''Liftoff starts Saturday when No. 25 West
<< Roethlisberger's suspension reduced to four games
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has reduced the
suspension of Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger from six to
four games.
The NFL Network reported that the reduction came after Goodell me
<< JoePa, Royster on verge of milestones
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a milestone in itself that Penn State
icon Joe Paterno is still coaching in the twilight of his years. So it comes
as no surprise that the bespectacled legend is approaching 400 career wins.
His tra
<< First-place teams collide as Rangers visit Twins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Texas Rangers appear to be headed to their first
American League West title since 1999, the AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins
still have some work to do.
The two division leaders will square off tonight in the o
No. 7 Sooners seek entry into 800-win club >>
NORMAN, Okla. (AP) -The pictures on the walls and the old videos Bob Stoops shows to his players serve as a reminder that Oklahoma's program has been thriving for decades, since long before any of them were around.On Saturday night, Oklahoma can add
Newton set to debut as No. 22 Auburn's QB >>
AUBURN, Ala. (AP) -Quarterback Cameron Newton has been the talk of Auburn since his arrival on campus. He's big, he's mobile and he's a skilled leader who can direct Gus Malzahn's offense to even bigger numbers.That's the buzz, at least.Really, the
Penguins sign Mike Comrie >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Penguins have signed forward
Mike Comrie to a one-year contract worth $500,000.
Comrie spent last season with Edmonton and registered 13 goals with eight
assists for 21 points in 43
Nationwide to end tour sponsorship in 2012 >>
Dublin, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nationwide Insurance has closed one door and
opened another.
The company said Friday it will no longer sponsor the PGA Tour's developmental
circuit when its contract runs out after the 2012 season. B
After all the trouble that’s ensued since Braylon Edwards allegedly punched one of LeBron James’ homeboys in the face at a club, the Cleveland Browns have sent away their last remaining player of worth to the New York Jets. This is a great move for Dirty Sanchez and all, but it’s even better for the Knicks. Now Donnie Walsh can say, “You get to haunt Braylon Edwards with your posse if you sign here!” next summer.
Putting that aside for a moment, the move is a clear indication that the new-look Jets are gunning for the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think that New York thought that Dirty Sanchez was going to be such a rock star. With a 75.2 passer rating that was killed against the Jets, Sanchez is doing an admirable job of managing games and putting the Jets in a position to win. The defense has been the major story in New York thus far, but the acquisition of Braylon Edwards makes this offense loaded with talent that can dent any defense…as long as Dirty Sanchez continues his meteoric rise.
Thus far, Edwards has been a non-factor in the NFL piling up just 139 receiving yards on 10 catches. He has yet to find the endzone, and with the Browns mired in the most unsexy quarterback controversy of all time (Anderson vs. Quinn...yawn), there going nowhere fast. Edwards is two seasons removed from a career year which saw him catch 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns when the Browns were the spread killing monsters of 2007. In 2008, injuries slowed the receiver down to just 873 yards and three touchdowns though he played in all 16 games.
So that being said, we really don’t know if Braylon Edwards is just a flash in the pan, or a legit threat. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he is a prototypical receiver. But he’s also shown a strange, and unwarranted, talent for dropping passes. Lining up opposite Jericho Cotchery, a speed demon with 23 catches, 356 yards and a single touchdown, may give Braylon the open looks he needs. A change of scenery may also rejuvenate the star receiver.
In return, the Browns will receive Chansi Stuckey, online football betting a special teams player you’ve never heard of and a pair of draft picks. That’s a tall order for a guy whose only real value right now is in his name, and it shows no promise to the Browns that they can rebuild around those acquisitions. Braylon was the only reason to hope for the Browns to go 3-14 SU this year. Without him, they don’t have a single guy on offense that can scare any team.
For the Jets, it’s a response to the pounding that they took at the hand of the Saints. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have averaged around 4.0 yards per carry each on the ground, but striking a fair balance between the passing and rushing attacks in New York has been a struggle. You have to believe that the trio of Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards will give Sanchez the weapons he needs to unleash through the air. Theoretically, that would open up holes for the rushing game. But the proposed public option health care plan works in theory too. We need to see the proof in the pudding before we start loading up mega bucks on the New York Jets to take the AFC.
The one wrinkle in this whole thing is that Braylon could very well be suspended by the league for disciplinary action due to his “brawl” with LeBron’s friend. If that’s the case, the Jets may have to bench him for a few games leaving them with a somewhat depleted receiving corps for a few games. Also, this is a guy who gets in fights with people at clubs. New York may not be the best place for him. Just sayin’.
The Jets have a long week before they meet the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football Betting in a virtual pick ‘em game. Braylon’s excess baggage may be a distraction, and his curiously low production may be what we should be expecting of him overall, but for the Jets, taking a chance to strike gold is well worth it. At the end of the year, they can simply just blame it on their rookie quarterback.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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